Tuesday, December 4, 2007

The Election Is Taking Shape

Here's how I see it:

The Democratic Nominee will be Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. There isn't anybody else on the ticket with a snowball's chance....

The Republican Nominee will be Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney. Huckabee can only win Iowa. Nobody else will look at him, including his home state. Ron Paul has the anti-establishment vote and, quite frankly, some good ideas. But, the majority of Americans consider him too offbeat to consider for the highest office in the land. Fred Thompson is hoping to skate in on the platform that he is an actor turned politician, just like Ronald Reagan. Unfortunately, that's the only experience he has to run on. John McCain is supposed to be a contender, but is merely looked at with pity for his valiant effort in his advanced years.

Clinton vs. Obama -- Clinton has the political machinery to make a nomination happen. Obama has only been involved in national politics for a couple years. Oprah may rule the airwaves, but she doesn't decide elections. Clinton will be the next contender for a Democrat President.

Giuliani vs. Romney -- Only time will tell. The one who wins will be the one who is able to prove to the voters that he has the desire and skill to beat the political machine that controls the Democrat Party. Romney has a good shot at it, with his speech to be delivered at the Bush Library. Giuliani is hoping to capitalize on the admiration he received for his handling of the 9/11 attack. Unfortunately, mainstream America has too short of a memory to base their votes solely on past activity. When was the last time you heard Romney heralded for his handling of the disaster surrounding the Salt Lake City Olympics or Boston's Big Dig? Neither of these were as traumatic, but both were more recent.

The final point is, whether Clinton faces Romney or Giuliani, she will have to face them in debates and other public forums. Hillary will have to show her face to the American people, and will have to speak. Looking at Hillary is enough to turn many voters away from her. But, forcing her to identify and defend a position will be pure gold in the coffers of the Republican candidate.

-- Edited 6/12/2008
So, I was wrong on both counts. That's what makes this country great, and keeps me learning.